Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Disrupt Central and South Asian Trade Expansion
Ongoing military conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan have become a major obstacle to expanding trade relations between Central and South Asian countries. These tensions have severely impacted the region’s ambitious projects aimed at increasing trade levels with Pakistan.
According to the Eurasianet news website, Kazakhstan had previously aimed to increase its trade volume with Pakistan to one billion dollars, but the current realistic trade capacity between the two countries is estimated at around 645 million dollars. This figure was presented during a meeting between Serik Zhumanarin, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister, and Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, Pakistan’s Minister of Investment, in Astana.
Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has set a target to raise its annual trade volume with Pakistan to two billion dollars within the next five years. However, trade statistics indicate that achieving this goal will not be easy. In 2024, Pakistan’s exports to Uzbekistan reached 129 million dollars, while Uzbekistan’s exports to Pakistan were 257 million dollars. Data from 2025 shows no significant change in the trade volume between the two countries.
Although regional officials rarely directly mention the Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions in formal meetings, the military disputes between Islamabad and the Taliban administration are cited as key factors slowing the development of trade and transit relations between Central and South Asia.
These tensions have not only rendered transportation routes uncertain but also raised concerns about the spread of instability in Afghanistan and the broader region. At the October Moscow Format summit on Afghanistan’s stability, severe disagreements arose between Pakistani and Kabul representatives, especially over counterterrorism efforts, resulting in no joint statement being issued.
Despite these challenges, Pakistani officials continue to emphasize the importance of their ports as gateways for Central Asian countries to access international waters, viewing them as strategic gateways for regional trade development.
The continuation of tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could seriously hinder Afghanistan’s role in connecting Central and South Asia, as the security of transit routes, political stability, and regional relations are key factors for developing trade cooperation between the two regions.
