Poll Predicts Erdogan at Risk of Defeat in Turkey’s Presidential Runoff

A recent poll in Turkey indicates that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a risk of defeat if the presidential election goes to a runoff against two prominent opposition figures.

Conducted by the research institute “Youn,” the survey included 3,000 participants across 51 provinces in Turkey during August. Respondents were asked whom they would vote for if Erdogan competed against Ekrem Imamoglu in the second round.

According to the findings, Ekrem Imamoglu would secure 51.3% of the vote, while Erdogan’s share is projected at 48.7%. Imamoglu, the suspended mayor of Istanbul and head of the Turkish Municipalities Union, is a leading opposition figure and has been detained since March 19, 2025, at the Marmara prison in Silivri.

In another scenario from the poll, Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, also leads with 53.4% of the vote against Erdogan’s 46.6%.

These results come despite Erdogan’s victory in the 2023 presidential runoff, where he won 27 million votes, equivalent to 52.18% of the ballots.