US Intelligence Assessment: Even a Major Attack Unlikely to Topple Iran’s Power Structure
The Washington Post has reported that a classified assessment by the US National Intelligence Council has concluded that even a large-scale military attack by the United States would likely fail to overthrow the power structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This assessment was prepared approximately one week before the outbreak of war between the US, Israel, and Iran, expressing skepticism about any scenario involving regime change in Tehran.
According to the report, even if the leader of the Islamic Republic were assassinated, the ruling clergy and the country’s military structures would probably operate under pre-designed mechanisms to ensure continuity of power. The assessment also suggests that the likelihood of fragmented Iranian opposition forces seizing power is considered “unlikely.”
The US National Intelligence Council, composed of senior analysts, synthesizes the perspectives of 18 US intelligence agencies in confidential assessments. US officials have yet to comment formally on the report, and it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump was aware of its contents prior to the commencement of military operations.
Following ongoing US and Israeli attacks, some current and former American officials have stated that there are no indications of a widespread popular uprising or serious fractures within Iran’s power structure. According to them, Iranian security forces managed to maintain control during nationwide protests in January.
Analysts believe that even if Iran’s regional capabilities are weakened, the internal power structures still possess the capacity to maintain order. Susan Maloney, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that Iran’s governing institutions have been shaped over decades to endure major crises.
While President Trump has spoken of an “unconditional surrender” by Iran and even hinted at involvement in selecting the next leader, some experts say the US’s ability to determine political outcomes inside Iran is limited. Holly Dagres, a researcher at the Washington Institute, also noted that the Islamic Republic’s leaders define their political identity in opposition to the US, and surrendering to Washington is inconsistent with their worldview.
The report ultimately concludes that despite external pressures and potential regional weakening, Iran’s power structure still possesses the necessary tools to maintain internal control.
