UN Reports 11 Million Population Discrepancy in Afghanistan Figures
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has reported that Afghanistan’s population is expected to reach 48.6 million this year, a figure approximately 11 million higher than the estimate provided by the Taliban administration. This significant discrepancy arises amid ongoing challenges due to the absence of a nationwide census and a reliable civil registration system, which remain fundamental obstacles to accurately determining the country’s true population.
OCHA stated that it bases its humanitarian aid planning on this estimate and, according to the “Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan,” 21.9 million people out of the estimated total population require urgent assistance. The agency emphasized that internally displaced persons, especially recent returnees, have been included in these calculations.
According to United Nations reports, the population increase is primarily linked to the large-scale return of Afghan migrants from Iran and Pakistan in recent years. Since late 2023, more than five million individuals have returned to Afghanistan from these two countries—some forcibly expelled and others voluntarily repatriated.
In contrast, the National Statistics and Information Authority under the Taliban administration estimates the country’s population at around 36 to 37 million and previously stated that men constitute 51% of the population, with women making up 49%. This notable divergence again raises questions about the transparency and technical capacity of the Taliban’s statistical apparatus.
Experts suggest that the discrepancy mainly stems from differing calculation methods and the intended use of the data. However, the lack of a comprehensive civil registration system and accurate management of cross-border movements complicate precise population enumeration. This situation poses challenges for effective planning to address residents’ needs, especially amid ongoing humanitarian, economic, and climatic crises.
Afghanistan has not conducted a comprehensive and scientific census for nearly half a century, and all existing population figures are based on estimates. The United Nations has warned that the massive return of migrants, combined with poverty, unemployment, drought, and reduced international aid, is exerting additional pressure on the country’s limited resources.
