Trump Heads to China Amid Tumultuous US-Iran Conflict and Strategic Negotiations
Trump is set to travel to China today. One of the central topics likely to dominate discussions between the two sides will be the potential US and Israeli war with Iran, a subject of significant importance among the issues addressed.
To leverage concessions from China, Trump is in dire need of a military victory on the battlefield or the signing of what he considers a favorable agreement with Iran, enabling him to dictate his demands to the Chinese from a position of strength.
However, in the current circumstances, the US president appears as a defeated figure, having been significantly humiliated over two and a half months of war and negotiations. This has left him with limited tools to exert pressure or extract concessions during his trip to China.
Trump is heading to China at a time when, in addition to the military damages inflicted on American bases in the region, Iran’s strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz has plunged the US and the global community into an energy and economic crisis.
Trump’s successive mistakes in the conflict with Iran have not led to the destruction of the Islamic Republic or its nuclear and missile industries; on the contrary, Iran has risen to the status of a global superpower. Consequently, the US president now finds himself compelled to grant considerable concessions to China, a powerful rival, to prevent the consolidation of Iran’s position as a new competitor.
On another front, although the internal situation in the US was unfavorable for Trump and the Republican Party, with the series of US defeats in the war raising the likelihood of Republican losses in the midterm congressional elections, a shift in the electoral landscape has now pulled Trump out of crisis.
This shift involves an increase in the Republican Party’s quota of congressional representatives in several states, a development that occurred in recent days. As a result, Trump and his party members are currently relieved from the risk of losing the elections and, consequently, the threat of congressional pressure regarding the war with Iran.
Freed from congressional legal obstacles related to the conflict with Iran, Trump will attempt during his China trip to entice Beijing away from its support for Iran by presenting attractive proposals.
Last week, Seyed Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, also visited China. Naturally, he presented his strategic packages to the Chinese side to both preserve and expand the current strategic depth established.
Now it is Trump who will strive to improve his chances of escaping the crisis by offering concessions. In this trip, China emerges as the definite winner. If Trump’s visit to Beijing fails, China will send him off with a historic humiliation; if Trump achieves some of his desired outcomes, he will still have to grant significant concessions to the Chinese.
Should Trump manage by any means to divert China from supporting Iran, it is possible that the US will launch immediate offensive operations against Iran without delay. The US maintaining a war posture throughout the current ceasefire period indicates that the American side still holds hope for military success.
If the US does not initiate new attacks against Iran shortly after Trump’s return from Beijing, it will mean that the trip yielded no gains and that Trump must officially accept his defeat in the war against Iran.
Seyed Ahmad Mousavi, Correspondent
