Is the Taliban Approaching a Breaking Point? Leadership Change Under Consideration
The 8 Sobh newspaper website, citing News18, has reported that the Taliban are considering the removal of Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada from the leadership of the group. It is now clear that the Taliban are severely divided, with deep conflicts among their leaders that have at times nearly led to military confrontations. Some experts interpret the use of the title “Caliph” for Sirajuddin Haqqani as an effort by one faction within the Taliban to seize control and transfer power from the Amir al-Mu’minin (Commander of the Faithful) to the Caliph. Meanwhile, rumors about Mullah Haibatullah’s death have circulated for years, and the group’s attempts to conceal their leader’s identity over the past year and a half have only fueled these suspicions. Considering that removing a figure of Mullah Haibatullah’s stature from the Taliban leadership would negatively impact the group’s organizational cohesion and possibly lead to its collapse, it is unlikely that the Taliban leadership would make such a difficult decision under normal circumstances. This suggests that such a personality might not actually exist, and that the faction worried about losing control of the leadership is using the idea of a leadership change to promote a tangible and present figure—similar in stature to the Amir al-Mu’minin—to this position. Given Mullah Haibatullah’s somewhat charismatic standing within the Taliban, the Caliph has so far been unable to assert himself against him. However, it remains unclear whether the Caliph can tolerate the presence of another Amir al-Mu’minin subordinate to him. Therefore, if the reports are true and a serious discussion about changing the Taliban leadership arises in the coming days, this change would likely be less about the group’s management strategies and more about an internal power struggle among the Taliban factions. Such a power struggle could mark the beginning of the Taliban’s internal collapse, fragmenting the country into multiple power islands and ushering in a new phase of conflict and disputes within the region.
By Seyed Mohammad Mousavi
