Bagram: The Taliban’s Big Test Between Legitimacy and Survival
For two decades, Bagram Air Base symbolized the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. It was not only America’s largest and most advanced logistical and operational hub in the region but also a key point for air control, intelligence, and even security detentions.
The rushed U.S. withdrawal from Bagram in 2021 marked the end of an era and the return of Taliban rule. Now, however, Washington’s return to Bagram—albeit in a limited and different form from the past—has raised new questions about the future of Afghanistan and the region.
The Taliban and the Bagram Dilemma
The central question is how the Taliban, who today see themselves as Afghanistan’s unchallenged rulers, can come to terms with this return. Bagram places the Taliban in a historical bind that exposes the contradictions of their power.
On one hand, Bagram is a symbol of occupation and national humiliation for the Taliban. They shed blood for years to claim they had freed Afghanistan from foreigners. Any silence or implicit acceptance of America’s return to this base erodes the Taliban’s ideological legitimacy among their supporters.
On the other hand, the Taliban desperately need foreign relations and international aid. Afghanistan’s economy over the past three years has survived largely on direct and indirect U.S. financial support, while global political pressure on the Taliban to adjust domestic and regional policies continues. In such circumstances, an open military confrontation with the U.S. would not only be extremely costly but could also plunge the Taliban deeper into deadly isolation. The Taliban know that survival requires some form of engagement with the world, even if that engagement is riddled with contradictions.
For this reason, the Taliban’s approach to America’s return to Bagram has become a complex puzzle: neither serious opposition is possible, nor open approval. The Taliban may be forced into a dual policy: symbolic verbal opposition to preserve appearances at home, while at the same time practically tolerating America’s presence to avoid international isolation.
In other words, Bagram is not just a strategic base for America—it is a mirror for the Taliban, one that lays bare their internal contradictions. Whatever reaction they show will endanger part of their political existence. Perhaps this hidden conflict will shape Afghanistan’s future more than anything else.
Bagram’s Difficult Equation for Neighbors
The U.S. return to Bagram is not only a crucial test for the Taliban but also draws the attention of regional actors to Afghanistan.
Iran is the most concerned, as America’s renewed presence on Iran’s eastern border recalls geopolitical encirclement and poses a direct threat to Tehran’s national security. Iran may respond on several fronts, including covert support for anti-Taliban movements, to prevent the consolidation of U.S. presence.
Meanwhile, powers like Pakistan, China, and Russia also have their own sensitivities.
Thus, Bagram is not merely a military base but a point where regional and global powers once again compete over Afghanistan’s fate.
✍️ Seyed Mostafa Mousavi
