FAO Warns of Warmer, Drier Winter Ahead in Afghanistan, Threatening Water and Food Security
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a warning that Afghanistan will face a warmer and drier than usual winter ahead, a situation that could seriously challenge water access, agricultural production, and food security.
In its “Seasonal Climate Outlook” report for December 2025 to February 2026, FAO stated that a weak La Niña pattern has led to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures across much of the country. According to the organization, the 2025–2026 wet season began drier and warmer than normal, with soil moisture deficits persisting for several consecutive years.
The report also highlights exceptionally low snow accumulation nationwide, with snow water equivalent levels reaching their lowest point in 25 years. This presents a serious hydrological risk, especially for irrigated wheat cultivation areas that depend on snowmelt and river systems. FAO emphasized that even if rainfall improves later in the winter, the initial deficits will not be fully compensated.
The seasonal outlook indicates a high risk of below-normal rainfall in December, January, and February, particularly in northern, northeastern, western provinces, and the central highlands. Additionally, the forecasted combination of higher daytime temperatures with cold nights is expected to place further stress on crops, livestock, and vulnerable communities.
FAO warned that ongoing drought could delay the timely sowing and establishment of winter wheat and barley crops, reducing the 2026 yields. In irrigated areas, snow shortages increase the risk of water scarcity in spring and exacerbate competition for water as well as greater dependence on already strained groundwater sources.
The report further notes that pasture and forage conditions will deteriorate, with delayed greening likely forcing herders to rely on stored fodder for longer periods. This could lead to reduced livestock health, decreased milk production, and increased risk of animal mortality in late winter and early spring.
Joint assessments by FAO and partner organizations reveal that several consecutive seasons of insufficient rainfall and high temperatures have weakened Afghanistan’s agricultural systems and may expose millions of residents to severe food insecurity from late 2025 into early 2026.
The UN agency stressed the need for close monitoring of rainfall, snow reserves, and crop conditions, calling for timely agricultural support, improved water management, and early preventive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate risks.
