2025: A Year of Entrenched Isolation and Increased Pressure for Afghanistan

2025 was not a year of “major transformation” for Afghanistan; rather, it was a year of consolidating the situation established after the Taliban returned to power. The developments of this year were shaped not by a sudden event but by a series of decisions, international pressures, regional changes, and chronic crises—some occurring inside Afghanistan and many outside its borders—all directly affecting the country’s fate.

In 2025, Afghanistan more than ever resembled a forgotten issue on the global agenda; a country whose crisis continued, yet global attention towards it diminished.

The Taliban in their Fourth Year of Power: Consolidation Without Legitimacy

In 2025, the Taliban entered their fourth year in power; a rule that still lacked formal international recognition. Nevertheless, the Taliban managed to consolidate their administrative and security control, preventing the complete collapse of the government structure.

However, this consolidation came at a heavy price:

– Continued exclusion of women from education, employment, and public spaces
– Secondary schools and universities remaining closed to girls
– Increasing restrictions on media and civil society
– Concentration of power within a tight inner circle of Taliban leadership

It became clear in 2025 that the Taliban had no desire to ideologically moderate themselves to gain global legitimacy and preferred to continue their governance with minimal interaction and maximum control.

The Economy in a State of “Survival”: Neither Collapse Nor Growth

Afghanistan’s economy in 2025 neither collapsed nor recovered; it remained in a state of “minimal survival.”

Key features of the Afghan economy this year included:

– Heavy dependence on humanitarian aid
– Persistent liquidity crises and limited access to the global banking system
– Growth of informal economy, smuggling, and cross-border trade
– Increased cultivation and trafficking of synthetic narcotics despite the Taliban’s claims of combating drug trade

While some regional countries maintained limited trade with Afghanistan, sanctions and banking disconnection prevented any real economic growth.

Humanitarian Crisis: The Normalization of Disaster

In 2025, Afghanistan continued to experience one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, but what changed was the “level of global attention.”

– Millions remained in severe food insecurity
– Child malnutrition reached critical levels in many provinces
– International aid decreased or encountered political restrictions
– Aid organizations faced increasing pressure from the Taliban

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan had ceased to be “breaking news” and instead became a chronic, normalized situation.

Regional Developments: Afghanistan on the Margins of Power Games

Pakistan: Distancing and Tensions

Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan grew tenser in 2025. Increased clashes in border areas, the issue of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Islamabad’s frustration over its lack of influence on the Taliban pushed bilateral relations into a phase of coldness and distrust.

Iran: Cautious Engagement

Iran continued a policy of controlled engagement with the Taliban, focusing on:

– Border management
– Afghan refugee issues
– Water rights to the Helmand River

However, this engagement never reached the level of political partnership.

China and Russia: Security Interests, Not Political Responsibility

In 2025, China and Russia continued limited security and economic interactions with the Taliban, concentrating on:

– Preventing the spread of extremism
– Maintaining relative border stability
– Limited economic interests

It is worth noting that Russia was the only country worldwide to officially recognize the Taliban government in the past year.

The World and Afghanistan: A Lost Priority

In 2025, global attention to Afghanistan was overshadowed by other crises:

– Major international wars and tensions
– Geopolitical competitions among great powers
– Global economic crises

Afghanistan was no longer front-page news, yet the repercussions of neglect remained.

Afghan Society: Silence, Migration, and Erosion of Hope

Perhaps the most significant development in 2025 was the less visible one:

– Increased migration of elites
– Eroding hope among the youth
– Gradual silencing of civil protests
– Forced societal adaptation to restrictions

Afghanistan in 2025 was defined more than anything by “silence”—a silence born not from consent but from exhaustion.

Summary: 2025, The Year of Crisis Consolidation

2025 was not a year of change for Afghanistan; it was a year of crisis consolidation. There was neither a return to widespread war nor the emergence of genuine peace. The government neither collapsed nor found legitimacy.

By the end of 2025, Afghanistan stood at a crossroads between survival and deadlock; a country whose future depended more than ever on decisions yet to be made.

By: Seyed Mostafa Mousavi