Taliban Faces Strategic Deadlock Amid Regional Diplomatic Push
Despite declining to attend the Tehran summit of Afghanistan’s neighboring states, the Taliban’s absence contrasted with the presence of special representatives from all regional countries—signaling a broad regional consensus to prevent a new crisis.
Over the past two weeks, Iran has sought to play a central role in initiating a key regional effort. Backed by Iran, a “National Consensus” conference was held, bringing together most of the prominent anti-Taliban political leaders. So far, the summit is considered a success.
Although former political leaders from Afghanistan’s republic era have a history marked by significant failures, the absence of a new generation of influential political figures means those attending the consensus summit remain the only viable opposition to the Taliban. These individuals not only maintain some degree of grassroots mobilization capacity within the country but are also familiar names to the international community.
Iran’s initiative to coordinate opposition political leaders against the Taliban is a positive and necessary step. However, including participants who genuinely represent grassroots Afghan society could enhance the legitimacy and impact of such gatherings.
A unified approach is essential to pull Afghanistan out of crisis and counterbalance the Taliban. One of the primary excuses used by the Taliban to avoid dialogue is the lack of a coherent address on the opposition side—an excuse potentially undermined by this emerging consensus.
Iran also hosted a separate meeting of special representatives from Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, aiming to ease tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, and to provide a platform for potential dialogue between the Taliban and political leaders involved in the consensus summit.
However, the Taliban’s rejection of both initiatives places the group at odds with all regional players—countries that have, over the past four years, attempted to engage constructively with the Taliban, offering significant concessions to encourage the group to evolve into a rational actor capable of regional cooperation.
Despite opening diplomatic channels and providing these concessions, regional nations remain deeply concerned that the Taliban may become a source of regional terrorism and a proxy for destabilizing U.S. security agendas in South and Central Asia.
Reports of terrorist and separatist groups comprising nationals from neighboring countries gaining strength under Taliban rule have further heightened these concerns.
If the Taliban continues to disregard regional diplomatic efforts, it risks losing its remaining regional support. According to the Doha Agreement, the United States has security-related expectations of the Taliban that regional countries do not necessarily endorse. If the Taliban fails to address the legitimate concerns of its neighbors, it may soon be forced to choose between aligning with regional interests or remaining tethered to U.S. strategic demands. The time has come for the Taliban to decide whether it will act in line with U.S. plans or engage with regional initiatives and domestic political forces to rescue the country from another impending crisis.
